PURE MATHS FOR GOLD CUP

This is it – THE CENTAURIAN’S PURE MATHS FOR PICKING THE WINNER OF THE GOLD CUP SPRINT AT BORROWDALE PARK ON SUNDAY

First of all I would refer you back to my last article on how to “Pick a Winner”. Have a read and then come back to the pure maths associated with the Gold Cup this weekend. The article can be found at   https://zimracing.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/picking-a-winner/

In that article, you will see the key elements of the maths are time and weight. My rule of thumb is half a kilo equals a length – in other words for every half kilo added to the jockey’s weight, the horse is slowed by a length or 0.12 seconds. The other rule of thumb is to compare apples with apples in terms of race distances – sprinter comparisons should be 1000 to 1200 metres – but you might get a line on 1400 metre times. Middle distances are 1600 metres to 1800 metre but again 1400 metre form might help the database. Longer distance races, 1800, 1900 and 2000 metres can be compared but beyond that race tactics make mathematical analysis least useful.

I will come to the other factors after the analysis of the Gold Cup. I start by saying for each horse on each occasion it ran over comparable distances, what time would it have completed those races in had it carried the Gold Cup weight and the races had been run over 1200 metres?

So taking Coachella’s last run on 16th November, it was 1100 metres, carrying 61.5 kg in the time of 62.60 secs If it had been carrying 63 kg it would have been 0.36 seconds slower (or 3 x a half kilo at 0.12 secs per length) at 62.96 seconds – and if it had been 100 metres further, it would have taken 62.96/1100 x 1200 = 68.68 seconds. That is the first bit of core comparison data The maths for 7th September when it was carrying 61.5kg is – 58.58secs + 0.36 (i.e. 1.5 kg more to carry in the Gold Cup) = 58.94 /1000 x 1200 = 71.16 seconds 27th July – maybe include in the matrix??? – 60kg gave 88.68 + 0.72 (3kg more) = 89.4 /1450 x 1200 = 73.98 seconds 1st June was the OK over 1800 so can’t be included 28th April – at 62 kg gives 64.16 + 0.24 (+1kg) = 64.40/1100 x 1200 = 70.26 secs.

So now the same maths can be done for all the other runners based on the last five runs shown in the race card (where applicable) – and somebody please double-check my homework and give me marks out of ten!  
(Scroll down to reach my Gold Cup Sprint conclusions.)      

1 (9) COACHELLA 63.0 (MR108) K Steyn – Bridget Stidolph
70.26 secs
not applicable
73.98 secs
71.16 secs
68.68 secs
2 (3) PEGGSON 56.5 (MR93) …………… – Bridget Stidolph
70.96 secs
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
3 (1) TWILIGHT TRIP 55.5 (MR91) M Thackeray – Bridget Stidolph
not applicable
not applicable
72.00 secs
70.00 secs
71.05
4 (6) FAREEQ (AUS) 54.5 89 A J Sampson Gokhan Terzi
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
68.67 secs
5 (7) THREE TO TANGO 53.0 (MR86) Wes Marwing – Kirk Swanson
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
69.64 secs
not applicable
6 (2) COASTAL TORRENT 52.0 (MR83) C Storey – Bridget Stidolph
69.82 secs
69.38 secs
67.47 secs
69.82 secs
69.57 secs
7 (8) SILVER COIN 52.0 (MR78) M V’Rensburg – Gokhan Terzi
70.00 secs
not applicable
69.63 secs
67.86 secs
67.97 secs
8 (5) VERDIER 52.0 (MR78) B McNaughton – Gokhan Terzi
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
not applicable
9 (4) WHAT A DANDY 52.0 (MR76) *R Satombo – Kirk Swanson
68.53 secs
69.53 secs
not applicable
not applicable
68.10 secs  

Based on the pure maths, the winner might be expected to come from the light weights, Coastal Torrent or Silver Coin. Of the two, the latter seems to be more consistent in its recent time predictions – twice calculated at under 68 seconds for the 1200 metres. The former’s fast time projection is deemed to be a bit of a fluke.

The minor places will be fought out by top weight Coachella, Fareeq and then maybe What a Dandy

Added to the mix now will be the state of the going. Whilst Coachella is the real class horse in the field, 63 kg is a lot of pudding to carry in any event, but if the going is soft then the challenge is harder – I suspect Coachella will be found wanting

So based purely on the mathematical science of picking a winner, it’s Silver Coin from Fareeq, What a Dandy and then Coachella.

Now can we have suggestions for polishing my algorithms!

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