Lily Blue A Blinder?

The Centaurian delves into “pure Maths” for his Guineas predictions…

In considering what might win this year’s renewal of the Guineas, the prestigious first leg of the Zimbabwe Triple Crown, we do have a bit of form to exercise our pure maths on.

Remember the rules, check the times shown in the card for 1600 metre races and adjust for Sunday’s race weights.

So horse number 1 is WANTAGE

He has run twice over 1600m but in one case no time was taken, but in the second the horse ran the race in 97.30 seconds when carrying 60kg.

On Sunday he will carry 58kg which is equal to four lengths faster or half a second faster – remember half a Kg is a length, and a length takes 0.12 secs to run.

So if this form was repeated, Wantage should complete the run in 96.80 seconds.

Horse number 2 is GLADSTONE

He ran over 1600 in October and did the job in 97.79 seconds when carrying Sundays weight of 58 kg. Last race meeting he ran over 1200 in 72.80 seconds carrying 60kg – so take half a second off for a 58kg jockey = 72.30, then divide by 12 and multiply by 16 and you get 96.40 seconds but the maths can’t be reliable for a 1200 uplift to 1600. – projected to be second.

Number 3 is TREE OF WISDOM

Here the maths are:
97.14
96.60 – projected to be third
98.00
100.07

DONEGAL GLEN:
98.50
98.36

ZAMBEZI RAPIDS:
98.50

FIRE TO THE REIN:
97.60

LILY BLUE:
99.50

On 2nd February this filly carried 58kg to cover the ground in 96.93 seconds. On Sunday she carries 55.5 kg which is 2.5 kg less or 0.60 seconds faster … hence
96.30 – projected to win – fastest

PRESCOTT
96.20 (I don’t believe this time)
97.70

The big unknown here is what the going might be – my guess is that the going will be good and so Lily Blue should be a blinding bet. My guess is that Gladstone is on the improve and should run second with Tree of Wisdom third.

Get on!

Photograph: Flashback to 2019 when Sygone won, Action Jackson was second, followed by Mia Finola and Three To Tango.

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