The Centaurian delves into “pure Maths” for his Guineas predictions…
In considering what might win this year’s renewal of the Guineas, the prestigious first leg of the Zimbabwe Triple Crown, we do have a bit of form to exercise our pure maths on.
Remember the rules, check the times shown in the card for 1600 metre races and adjust for Sunday’s race weights.
So horse number 1 is WANTAGE
He has run twice over 1600m but in one case no time was taken, but in the second the horse ran the race in 97.30 seconds when carrying 60kg.
On Sunday he will carry 58kg which is equal to four lengths faster or half a second faster – remember half a Kg is a length, and a length takes 0.12 secs to run.
So if this form was repeated, Wantage should complete the run in 96.80 seconds.
Horse number 2 is GLADSTONE
He ran over 1600 in October and did the job in 97.79 seconds when carrying Sundays weight of 58 kg. Last race meeting he ran over 1200 in 72.80 seconds carrying 60kg – so take half a second off for a 58kg jockey = 72.30, then divide by 12 and multiply by 16 and you get 96.40 seconds but the maths can’t be reliable for a 1200 uplift to 1600. – projected to be second.
Number 3 is TREE OF WISDOM
Here the maths are: 97.14 96.60 – projected to be third 98.00 100.07
DONEGAL GLEN: 98.50 98.36
ZAMBEZI RAPIDS: 98.50
FIRE TO THE REIN: 97.60
LILY BLUE: 99.50
On 2nd February this filly carried 58kg to cover the ground in 96.93 seconds. On Sunday she carries 55.5 kg which is 2.5 kg less or 0.60 seconds faster … hence 96.30 – projected to win – fastest
PRESCOTT 96.20 (I don’t believe this time) 97.70
The big unknown here is what the going might be – my guess is that the going will be good and so Lily Blue should be a blinding bet. My guess is that Gladstone is on the improve and should run second with Tree of Wisdom third.
Get on!
Photograph: Flashback to 2019 when Sygone won, Action Jackson was second, followed by Mia Finola and Three To Tango.
The 2020 Zimbabwe Guineas (Gr3) – first leg of the Triple Crown – is the feature at Borrowdale Park on Sunday and is due off at 16 15.
Bridget Stidolph will saddle Wantage, Lily Blue and Prescott and I suspect that in the build-up to this race most speculation will be about the star filly, Lily Blue.
On form the daughter of Black Minnaloushe (USA) is the one they must beat.
In this important three-year-old Classic colts and geldings carry 58 kgs and the two fillies 55.5 kgs.
Kirk Swanson’s trio will have supporters, while the Gokhan Terzi yard is represented by two fairly dark horses – Gladstone and Fire To The Rein.
Don’t miss what is likely to be the most exciting race at Borrowdale Park for some time. There are 8 races on the card and the first is due off at 12 50.
Let’s go through the field:
1 (7) WANTAGE 58 kgs (MR81) – K Steyn – B Stidolph (R:10 W:3 P:6) Ato – Angora by Tamburlaine (IRE) Winner of the Tote Free Handicap and the Guineas Trial – both races over 1600m. He received 4.5 kgs from Tree Of Wisdom in the Tote Free, but gave weight to Tree Of Wisdom and Donegal Glen in the Guineas Trial. Can Wantage conquer stable companion Lily Blue? The filly had the upper hand in the 1200m Champion Juveniles Stakes in July. I am sure he is going to try.
2 (2) GLADSTONE 58 kgs (MR73) – D Sampson – G Terzi (R:10 W:1 P:2) Pathfork (USA) – Lupin (AUS) by Royal Academy (USA) Well fancied when winning his only start at Borrowdale Park on February 19. This was a 1200m Maiden Plate where Gladstone beat first-timer Globe Master by 1.25 lengths. It might have been different had Globe Master not lost two lengths at the start – and his saddle slipped during the running. It is impossible to judge Gladstone on such limited local form – he previously raced in RSA.
3 (6) TREE OF WISDOM 58 kgs (MR71) – N Takawira – K Swanson (R:10 W:1 P:4) Soft Falling Rain – Minerva by Western Winter (USA) Had five starts in the Cape and has won and been placed in five starts at Borrowdale. He beat subsequent winner Moxie in a 1600m Maiden on October 20 but since then has finished over the mile behind Sunday’s runners Wantage, Zambezi Rapids and Prescott. I like his breeding so not keen to dismiss him yet.
4 (3) DONEGAL GLEN 58 kgs (MR69) K Derere – K Swanson (R:3 W:1 P:2) Biarritz – Yakety Yak by Silvino (USA) Probably has to improve to beat Wantage, Tree Of Wisdom and Lily Blue over the Guineas trip but being lightly raced he might do so. Donegal Glen won a 1600m Maiden in soft going in December.
5 (8) ZAMBEZI RAPIDS 58 kgs (MR69) – D Habib – K Swanson (R:3 W:2 P:1) Dynasty – Cool River by Western Winter (USA) Has won his last two starts and could be the pick of the Swanson runners. At the last meeting Tree Of Wisdom was behind Zambezi Rapids in a 1600m Novice Plate. Has yet to meet Wantage and Lily Blue and this will be interesting.
6 (1) FIRE TO THE REIN 58 kgs (MR66) – Greyling – Terzi (R:8 W:1 P:3) Gimmethegreenlight (AUS) – Dropdeadbeautiful by Spectrum (IRE) This son of Gimmethegreenlight won his only start at Borrowdale on February 2 beating Tequila Man at level weights by a whisker. This was in a1260m Maiden Plate, but he raced up to 1800m in South Africa. Expect improvement but your guess is as good as mine.
7 (4) LILY BLUE 55.5 kgs (MR89) – M Thackeray – B Stidolph (R:11 W:5 P:4) Black Minnaloushe (USA) – Mammy Blue (ZIM) by Kitalpha (USA) In her last three starts Lily Blue has won the Breeders Fillies Mile (L), the 1800m ZNA Charity Champion Fillies Stakes and the 1600m Fillies Classic, the first leg of the Triple Tiara. She takes on the boys here but has the credentials to do so. I am impressed that her connections have accepted the challenge and wish her well. Lily Blue in the line-up makes this a special race.
8 (5) PRESCOTT 55.5 kgs (MR69) – B McNaughton – B Stidolph (R:9 W:1 P:7) Ato – Taylinlee by Brave Tin Soldier (USA) Prescott looks well held by her stable companion Lily Blue but this daughter of Ato is a consistent sort. She has finished in the money in 8 of her 9 starts, and you never can tell.
Photographs by Jenny Stock of Zimbabwe Equine News
Yarraman, with Hennie Greyling up, won the 2020 Ipi Tombe Stakes (L) at Borrowdale Park this afternoon.
The five-year-old Await The Dawn (USA) gelding is owned by Gengiz Goksel and was bred by Limpo Trading (Pty) Ltd. This race over 1600m completed a hat-trick of wins for Yarraman – and a fourth win on the day for the Goksel /Terzi combo. Well done Assistant Trainer Vanessa Birketoft, who runs the Gokhan Terzi satellite yard at Borrowdale, and hearty congratulations to all the connections.
Peggson, second, came up trumps in an exciting finish, and Three To Tango and In The Mood also gave it their best.
There are 7 races on the card including the Ipi Tombe Stakes (L). Ipi Tombe Day is held at Borrowdale Park, annually, to acknowledge and remember the great Zimbabwe-bred race mare, Ipi Tombe.
Saturday’s postponed Borrowdale Park race meeting is rescheduled for tomorrow, Wednesday, with the first race due off at 13 20.
Wednesday racing is unusual for Borrowdale and it will be interesting to see how many manage to drag themselves away from work, golf or whatever.
The card remains the same but expect some changes on Wednesday morning – and the rain must hold off until Thursday.
PLEASE NOTE THE NEW RACE TIMES: 13 20; 13 55; 14 30; 15 05; 15 35; 16 10; 16 40.
(Yesterday morning an email, sent automatically, from this page said racing would be on Sunday but the situation changed. Although that post was altered it did not generate an email so hopefully this will clear up any misunderstandings).
There will be racing at Borrowdale Park on Wednesday 19th February 2020, weather permitting. The first race will be off at 13 30 pm.
The race card for Sunday, February 16, remains relevant, as all the races previously scheduled for Sunday’s postponed race meeting have been carried forward.
Racing on Wednesday makes a change so, be there, and celebrate Ipi Tombe’s belated birthday.
Following a further course inspection – after 16mm of rain – the Borrowdale Park race meeting has been postponed. The proposal is to move the whole race meeting to next week.
The 2020 Ipi Tombe Stakes (L) will be run over 1600m at Borrowdale Park on Sunday and there is quality in this relatively small field. Colts and geldings all carry 60kgs, while In The Mood, the only mare in the line-up, is on 57.5 kgs.
This competitive race is due off at 15 45 and expect a cracker. Let’s look at the runners:
This five-year-old gelding by Jay Peg is an attractive proposition at level weights with most of the field. He won the race in 2019, beating Twilight Trip who was followed by Simona, Amsterdam, Kevin Barry, Master Switch and Pampas – none of whom take part this time around. Peggson’s last outing was on November 30 in a 1800m MR 90 Handicap where he finished 1.25 lengths behind Sunday’s runner Yarraman who was in receipt of 9.5 kgs. Three To Tango was 3 lengths off Peggson, and also received weight. Peggson has won from 1200m to 2000m and must be a major player.
By Nadeem (AUS) this 7-year-old gelding is versatile having won over 1800m and 1260 m in his last five starts. In October he beat Yarraman by 5 lengths over 1800m when conceding 5.5 kgs but on January 19 Yarraman turned the tables over the same distance, finishing 3 lengths clear of Sunday’s runner Three To Tango, while Fareeq and In The Mood were further back. Fareeq won twice over 1600m at Turffontein, ran fourth to Amsterdam in the 1600m Independence Trophy, and second to Wolves Among Sheep over the mile in September. That was in a Pinnacle Plate and interestingly Yarraman was one and a half lengths off Fareeq then, at level weights.
Most would agree that Yarraman, a five-year-old gelding by Await The Dawn (USA), has plenty of ability and he goes for a hat-trick on Sunday having won his last two starts over 1800m. He has finished in front of Peggson, Fareeq and Three To Tango before but the question is can he do so again at level weights. The going could be a factor on Sunday and Yarraman has performed well in the soft.
By Western Winter (USA) out of a Horse Chestnut mare, the lightly raced six-year-old has done best over 1000m and 1100m and in fact has not gone further than 1450m so far. He won the 2019 Hachiman Sprint but not sure how he will shape in this one. Kevin Derere who has been missing from Borrowdale for quite a while has the ride.
5 Drawn 1 THREE TO TANGO 60 kgs (MR85) N Takawira – Kirk Swanson (R:13 W:4 P:7)
This is an acid test for the well-performed four-year-old son of Greys Inn (USA) whose four wins include the 1600m Tote Free Handicap and the 2400m Zimbabwe Derby. He often does better than I expect but has not carried 60 kgs before. There is reason to believe he is out of the ordinary but has a tough task here. He won the Derby in soft going so we shall see.
6 Drawn 5 IN THE MOOD 57.5 kgs (MR81) Wes Marwing – Kirk Swanson (R:24 W:9 P:11)
In The Mood has actually won more races than the rest of this field but since winning the 1260m Sable Flyers in September has not lived up to expectations. At her best this five-year-old daughter of Bold Silvano could make them all run for their money – especially with a little weight on her side. I am not sure what to expect but will be holding thumbs.
Lily Blue, a daughter of Black Minnaloushe (USA), won the 1600m Fillies Classic by a country mile – as expected.
Trained by Bridget Stidolph, and with Mathew Thackeray in the irons, the talented filly is owned by the Gin’ll Fix It Syndicate (nominee Kirsty Stidolph), Robyn Macleod and Betty Prosser. She was bred by Geoff Armitage.
Congratulations to the winning connections.
The first race at Borrowdale Park on Sunday, a 1200m Graduation Plate, was won by Born To Shine and again the Stidolph yard and Thackeray scored.
The Gokhan Terzi yard saddled two winners – Fire To The Rein (Hennie Greyling) and Fareeq ridden by Mathew Thackeray.
Kirk Swanson took the training honours with Diamonds ‘n Rubies (Wes Marwing), Wee Doch ‘n Dorris (*Rodgers Satombo) and Ezekial (Marwing).
Racing at Borrowdale Park in Harare - Zimbabwe 