If facts and figures strain your brain do not read this. However it might be wise to pay attention to recent changes in Merit Ratings in some of Sunday’s races at Borrowdale Park.
On October 8 Ashton Park was an impressive winner of a 1800 MR 92 Handicap, carrying 61 kgs. He was followed across the line by Kevin Barry (1 length back), Roman Discent (2 lengths behind), Call Me Earl (2.75 lengths), David’s Flower (3.25), Newton Power (5.25) and Lava Flow (5.30).
With the exception of Ashton Park all the above will come out on Sunday in the 1800m Mathematician MR 80 Handicap. So will Perfect Grace and Jay Kay Two, both carrying light weights but in stronger company here.
It is tempting to assume Kevin Barry is virtually home and dry – same distance, mostly the same runners etc – but study the weights carefully. Since they last met Kevin Barry and Roman Discent have each gone up by two index points, Call Me Earl has dropped two points; David’s Flower and Newton Power are minus a point, and Lava Flow is minus three.
This has resulted in some turnaround in weights. For instance, last time Call Me Earl was giving Kevin Barry 1.5 kgs but now receives 0.5 kg. Roman Discent ran against Kevin Barry at level weights but is now in receipt of 1 kg. David’s Flower is now 1.5 kgs better off, and although Newton Power and Kevin Barry both carry 60 kgs on Sunday, Newton Power was giving Kevin Barry 1.5 kgs last time out. And then there’s Lava Flow….4.30 lengths off Kevin Barry before but 3 kgs better off now.
I am not saying Kevin Barry can’t win but I won’t be very surprised if he does not.
Perfect Grace and Jay Kay Two didn’t take on Ashton Park but placed behind Ladies First over 1700m on October 8. Perfect Grace meets Jay Kay Two on better terms. Working out whether this pair, with weight on their side, can cause an upset is beyond me.